How Will Turkey’s Referendum Result Affect Its Economy?

How Will Turkey’s Referendum Result Affect Its Economy?

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Editor’s Remarks:
As the dust settled on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s referendum victory this week, we asked our readers what they thought its impact would be on Turkey’s economy. Erdogan’s victory is as consequential as it was narrow: by making the presidency the head of government as well as state, he will have unprecedented power to mould the country to his own desires. It’s early days of course: opposition parties have launched challenges against the result, which is probably why 15% of our readers thought it is too early to tell. Most agreed the new regime is here to stay. Despite employment sitting around a seven-year high of 13%, and creeping levels of debt, 18% of you were favourable to Turkey’s post-referendum potential for reform. “The worst is behind us,” argued Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, “We will do much better going forward.” Besides investment plans, though, a lot of the AKP’s hopes rest on expanding Turkey’s trade ties with the EU. But with diplomatic relations frayed and international concerns over the result’s legitimacy, it seems unlikely they can count on it – hence why a large majority (67%) of our readers thought that investors will remain too uncertain over Turkey’s future to start betting big on Erdogan’s reform plans. Some things are less within his newfound control, though: Turkish tourism remains in the red following terrorism-related incidents, and political unrest will do nothing to turn this around.

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