Increasingly, the outlook for South Africa has worsened under the Zuma tenure with increased persistence. Zuma has used his strong-arm tactics to undermine the institutions to which he should be held accountable by propping government positions with officials sympathetic to his cause and blinded by their own political ambitions.
ANC veterans recently wrote to the National Executive Committee (NEC) expressing their desire that the “NEC has to step up and play its role as required by the ANC constitution”, further citing that Zuma’s supporters have placed their own narrow political and financial interests above those of the country.
The South African Reserve Bank cut the country’s 2017 growth forecast to an ominous 1%, the World Bank gave an equivocal outlook projecting the South African Economy to grow by 0.6% this year, cutting its January projection by 0.5 percentage points.
The South African economy has seen a deterioration of investor confidence, following the country’s downgrade to junk status, additionally experiencing higher policy uncertainty resulting in dejected growth projection. The loss of confidence in South Africa has resulted from a culmination of political, social and economic factors within the country.
Eskom in Crisis
The World Economic Forum notes “sustained power cuts, caused by under-investment and a shortage of generating capacity, have damaged the South African economy” with “the key element of how energy moves from generation to consumption” mostly being overlooked.
Eskom, the largest public electricity utility producer in Africa, has had a turbulent time of late financially and politically. Most notably, the recent saga regarding Brian Molefe’s refusal to accept his second dismissal as Eskom CEO after the original revelation of his links to the now infamous Gupta family has acted as an impediment to the economic growth of South Africa.
Molefe was shockingly re-instated as Eskom CEO just over three weeks ago after Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown believed this was a better value proposition for the South African fiscus. Reliant energy generation is key to a better South Africa on its journey from a newly industrialised country (NIC) to first-world classification.
Molefe stands in the way of not only Eskom but all of South Africa by lodging a desperate application with the Labour Court in Johannesburg to have the decision to remove him as Eskom CEO declared invalid.
Finance Ministers’ Roulette
Jacob Zuma on the 9th of December 2015 fired Nhlanhla Nene without justification, only to instate David van Rooyen without good cause leading to chaos in the financial markets as the South African rand dropped as much as 5.4% against the dollar in a single day.
David van Rooyen’s stay as Finance Minister only lasted 6 days as public and business outcry mounted with the van Rooyen appointment roughly costing the South African economy R500bn (£22bn) in losses due to rand depreciation.
Zuma brought in Pravin Gordhan who stabilised the economy as a respected individual within the international finance community, only to be replaced by an unknown quantity in Malusi Gigaba in March who previously served as minister of Home Affairs.
Gigaba’s appointment was swiftly followed by the downgrading of the SA’s economy to non-investment grade (BB+) by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The economic landscape for South Africa now looks very uncertain with the term ‘radical economic transformation’ making the rounds as Gigaba aims to address the plight of the left behind people.
South Africa needs to remain a secure destination for foreign direct investment, but the current noise coming from South Africa only increases the risk of investment to a level deterring investment to fuel economic growth.
Although the economy has seen the manufacturing and retail sector somewhat recover, the economy continues to languish, with the risk of a technical recession on the horizon.
The Gupta Family
The Gupta family, particularly Ajay, Atul and Rajesh Gupta, built an empire in computers, mining, media, technology and engineering in the post-Apartheid era.
The controversy surrounding the family originates from its close links to the Zuma family, where Zuma’s son, Duduzane has acted as a director to several Gupta companies. It is utterly evident that the Gupta’s have captured the state after a barrage of dishonourable leaked e-mails.
The e-mails show the influence of the Gupta family on the presidency and a range of areas of government. The Guptas have come under increased pressure as their dealings become more evident to the South African public. The Gupta family has seen their financial might constraint partially as numerous South African banks closed their accounts citing “suspicious transactions” and reported them to the Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC).
However, the Guptas have had some respite with a much-needed relief in the form of an R70m value-added tax (VAT) refund payment from the South African Revenue Service (SARS), only leading to more questions than answers.
The Gupta family have made themselves part of the fabric of the financial and political environment in South Africa, heavily linked to the events surrounding Eskom, the Finance Ministers’ and other governmental contracts and operations.
Similarly to Molefe, the Guptas hold South Africa back from fulfilling its potential, only to benefit themselves and those in their camp.
Ramaphosa or Zuma 2.0
To achieve immediate progress within South Africa change must come from the ANC. Many would advocate the Democratic Alliance (DA) having taken over key municipalities including Pretoria and Johannesburg.
However, internal distraction with Helen Zille’s suspension and understandably blind faith from the public for the ANC structure no matter its condition, ultimately means the true veterans need to reinvigorate the ANC to its foundation.
The ability of the ANC to go back to its roots was proven after the death of Ahmed Kathrada, the last member of the freedom fighters to pass from the Rivonia trial. Fundamentally, South Africa’s future is in the hand of either Cyril Ramaphosa or Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Deputy ANC president Ramaphosa was the convenor of the Constitutional Assembly, the platform from which the constitution was negotiated and launched. He is a proven businessman indicating he has the vision to lead South Africa into economic prosperity.
On the other hand, Dlamini-Zuma represents a continuation of the current political environment within South Africa which would leave many disgruntled hoping for positive change.
Where Does SA Stand?
South Africa is in a state of dissolution. Believed by many South Africans to be the leading light within the African continent, Prince Mashele told South Africans to take a cold shower, “South Africa is just another African country, and always will be”.
To state South Africa will remain just another African country is a bleak analysis of what the future holds. South Africa can be a special African country in its own right. However, reality has shown for it to currently be no less exposed to corruption, political jostling nor resistant to change compared to a country like Nigeria.
The heightened economic disparity between the wealthy and poor in South Africa has fueled the crime rate to rise. This has not only created an element of fear for one’s own safety within the country but driven ambitious and capable individuals to emigrate to more politically and economically stable climates.
South Africa is crumbling like the ruins of Mapungubwe reflecting the concept that great cultures and ideas can fade in the progress of time.
South Africa needs to empower the voices of its ambitious young and old citizens to push for the change they desire without hesitation. South Africa’s sluggish progress has been its own doing.
South Africa needs to stabilise its internal turmoil to attract foreign direct investment that can make a difference and stimulate South Africa to the place in the African sun it desires.
Confidence needs to be restored in the institutions holding its political leaders to account, while at the same time not restraining current individuals in achieving their ambitions.
A resistant South Africa will alienate its own citizens as it alienates itself from progress. However, change within South Africa will bring hope for a future that does not inhibit ambitions but rewards it.
Zimbabwe’s Economy: Can It Restore Its Splendour?
These days, when people think of Zimbabwe, they think of this failed third-world state until a few days ago was run by a brutal dictator. Little do they know that this nation was, until the mid-1990’s, one of Africa’s better-performing economies.
Former Tanzanian Julius Nyerere, not long after Zimbabwean independence, is reported to have told Robert Mugabe that “You have inherited a jewel, keep it that way”. Needless to say, this advice was not kept. As the world has seen, this jewel was allowed to be scratched, dropped, then left to collect dust.
There are serious problems that require serious investment and economic reform to allow Zimbabwe to prosper. Infrastructure needs serious investment, with the Kariba Dam in danger of collapsing, the transport network likewise has been neglected with poorly paved roads and trains from the colonial era being brought back into service.
But the biggest problem, alongside corruption, has to be government interference with the economy as a whole, with centralised economic planning and state ownership proving to be a disaster. But while there is doom and gloom, there is hope.
The Case for Optimism
This jewel, as badly damaged as it is, is still a jewel. It just needs tender love and care. When it comes to mining, the nation is rich in raw resources, particularly gold, platinum, diamonds and coal.
The education system, one of Mugabe’s few positive acts, is one of the best in Africa. Agriculture is an area with a future, with history proving it can be one of the strongest economic sectors in the country. Furthermore, there is an opportunity to kickstart the tourism sector, with promising growth in recent years. It is worth identifying strengths to build on, and weaknesses to repair if Zimbabwe wants to recover.
Left to Rot
The Kariba Dam was once the showpiece of the white minority government, with the artificial lake behind it becoming a tourist and recreation attraction in its own right. However, this dam, constructed in the 1950s, has been neglected over the decades, so much so it has been likened to Mosul Dam in Iraq.
Although not at immediate danger just yet, due to drought and overuse culminating in a regional water crisis, it is feared as sudden flood, of which the Zambezi Valley region is known for, could spark a cascading tsunami. The BBC argues that, should the dam collapse and cause a tsunami, it would destroy the downstream Cahora Bossa Dam in Mozambique, which would have a serious impact on Southern Africa’s hydroelectric capacity as well as put up to 3.5 million lives at risk.
It is a similar story across the country. While not threatening to cause a regional catastrophe, Zimbabwe’s infrastructure all round is in a serious state of disrepair. The national road network has itself become a death trap. 21 people were killed when a truck carrying mourners collided with a tanker in October 2013.
In July 2014, a collision between a truck and a minibus killed 16. In June 2017, 43 were killed when a bus crashed into a tree. It may seem horrific, but when the conditions of the roads are examined, such accidents are waiting to happen. The state newspaper, The Herald, acknowledged that the lack of funding was of a serious concern in 2012.
It is a similar story when it comes to rail. Zimbabwe is lucky as it is situated in a choke point between South Africa and the rest of Eastern and Central Africa. However, little investment has been made, with only 3077km of rail tracks, of which all but 313km is electrified and all but 28km is dual track.
Whilst it is argued that this is sufficient as long as it is well maintained, this has not occurred, with the Railway Association of Enginemen referring to the rail network as a ‘death trap’. Diesel shortages have also seen the return of steam engines, primarily for safari excursions and shunting in the railyards of Bulawayo. The government-owned operator, National Rail Zimbabwe, was close to collapse in 2010, with salary cuts of 50% in 2016, displaying that the situation is still precarious.
The root of this rail calamity, as is with much of Zimbabwe’s critical infrastructure, is government interference and bureaucracy. Now considering that the governing party, ZANU-PF, is a strong advocate of nationalisation, this is no surprise.
However, its application has proven to be disastrous. The Land Reform programme was such a debacle that even Mugabe himself admitted it was poorly orchestrated.
Indigenisation, the policy where 51% of a foreign business in Zimbabwe must be owned by a local partner, is said to be scaring away much needed foreign investment. Parastatals such as NRZ are said to be seriously mismanaged, causing friction with the workers, while haemorrhaging its budget.
All this begs the question, if, as the government line has been consistently, nationalisation has been implemented to redistribute wealth to ordinary Zimbabweans, why are they not receiving the benefits, instead dealing with failing infrastructure? The answer to that is clear – corruption, fed by mismanagement and patronage.
On the issue of opulence, for a president who was claimed by his supporters to be one of the worlds poorest, Mugabe lived a life of extravagance while in office. The Land Reform programme was abused by the ruling class – by 2010, The Guardian estimated that 40% of land seized from white farmers had been distributed among Mugabe and fellow cronies.
Considering its financial woes, NRZ has ordered a forensic audit to examine the extent of embezzlement. Corruption has become such a problem it is considered the norm, creating a two-tiered system. Its been argued that Zimbabwe loses $1 Billion annually from corrupt practices, though that figure could be higher.
Can Zimbabwe Rebuild?
It might be argued that Zimbabwe lacks a bright future, that it is stuck in an endless cycle. However, that would be ignorant of its many strengths. One of the reasons NRZ has been keen on using steam locomotives is the abundance of coal. There is reportedly estimated to be up to 26 billion tonnes of coal reserves.
Although this claim is contradicted by international organisations who argue it is only half-a-billion, it is still a significant amount for a small economy. With extraction per annum around the 3 million tonnes mark, the market is prime for a sustainable increase. Likewise, gold, diamonds and platinum are ripe for exploitation.
Considering the rise of the burgeoning Asian middle class, these are areas worth exploring however, there are several handicaps. With gold, there is a culture of small-scale mining.
Despite gold-mining being the third-biggest market, a lack of ability for these small miners to explore, as well as the amount of unused mine claims, hampers development. As for platinum, it is known the nation has the second largest reserves on earth, and the Marange Diamond fields are said to be one of the worlds largest.
Despite this opportunity, state-ownership has restricted the ability for Zimbabwe to encourage mining. The market is heavily politicised, with the Parastatal organisation the Zimbabwe Mining Development Commission unable to rehabilitate older mines due to the cost. Accusations of plundering by the ruling elite and the ever-present threat of nationalisation contribute to foreign investors’ fears.
Education-wise, the primary, secondary and tertiary systems are a source of pride for Zimbabweans. While the colonial-era private school system still educates the nation’s elite, the decision by Mugabe to invest in the education system has contributed to a well-educated populace, with a literacy rate of 87%, putting it among the top-20 bracket in all Africa.
Some concerns do linger, however. There has been a decline in standards in recent years, no doubt tied to the enduring financial crisis, to the point it is claimed that 51% of men have never had a formal education. And while the education system is by principle free and compulsory, tuition and other material fees are an obstacle for many.
However, by African standards, Zimbabwe’s progress is remarkable. While in the colonial era there were only two universities, today there are fifteen. But this creates its own challenges. Because of the high unemployment rate, there is a mass exodus of graduates across the Limpopo in search of better opportunities. Since 1996, students at
university have to pay tuition fees – around $500.
This may sound a pittance to western readers, but considering the unemployment rate and the fact that Zimbabwe’s average salary is $253 per month, this is a lot. For many Zimbabweans, even being well educated does not even come close to guaranteeing a future.
It would be silly to conclude without mentioning the agricultural and tourism sectors. Tobacco is a cash crop, with the industry being the second largest in Africa.
Despite a drastic collapse resulting from land reforms, the industry recovered to achieve its third highest harvest in 2014. China is by far the largest market, with 54% of all exports headed to Chinese consumers.
However, this is just one bright spot. Maize has not recovered from land reforms, with an annual yield of 400,000 tonnes well short of the estimated 2.2 million needed to keep the nation’s stomachs full. As for tourism, this is one of the big earners. Blessed with sites such as Matopo National Park, Hwange reserve, Victoria Falls and Great Zimbabwe, this is a tourism mecca.
However, this industry naturally declined with the rest of the nation once the economy began to decline. Despite the industry boosting the economy by $890m in 2016, it needs improvement. Overpricing and the behaviour of the police are said to be major contributors toward scaring tourists away, combined with the general confidence, public perception and a fragile hospitality sector.
Overall, this is a country with endless opportunity. There are underutilised sectors which, if utilised to their fullest extent, can rebuild the nation. However, the story is the same. Corruption and government mismanagement are causing major headaches. The decision to ditch the Zimbabwean Dollar in favour of foreign currency stabilised the economy after hyperinflation, but the creation of ‘bond notes’ on par with the USD only just restarted the panic.
This sort of government interference, as is the case with almost every industry, is hampering Zimbabwe’s development. And while Zimbabwe is hardly ready for a laissez-faire economy which would likely increase the gulf between rich and poor, the government needs to be more receptive to free market concepts.
Foreign investment is needed; policies such as nationalisation and indigenisation do nothing but scare it away. As for corruption, cleaning up an ingrained practice is extremely difficult. It is a well-known fact that nations with the least corruption are the most successful, but it is easier said than done. It can be done – Singapore eradicated corruption after independence, emerging as a leading financial destination. But it requires a collective will, and the total removal of the corrupt.
As said earlier, Zimbabwe may be a battered, neglected and dust-collecting jewel, but it is still a jewel. The question, however, is whether this jewel will shine again.
Zimbabweans want a brighter future than the one they have endured for the past two decades. However, government policy, enacted on the premise it would benefit the masses, has only made life harder.
Furthermore, leaders making these decisions have engrossed themselves at everyone else’s expense. A bright future, whilst always within grasp, requires the focus and determination of all Zimbabweans not just to grasp, but to hold on and rebuild.
Oscar Pistorius’ Sentence Extended to 15 Years
The former South African athlete’s sentence has been increased to 15 years for the murder of girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp on Valentine’s Day 2013. The athlete has served a year and 7 months and has 13 years and 5 months remaining.
The South African appeals court ruled that High Court Judge Thokozile Masipa’s decision to reduced the sentence to 6 years, based on the athlete’s state of mind, was wrong. Two of Judge Masipa’s rulings during the trials of Oscar Pistorius has been overturned by the appeals court. While gaining fame during the trials, she has been the subject of significant criticism on this topic.
Other famous sports figures charged with murdering their partners include former NFL player O.J. Simpson and boxer Rubin “Hurricane” Carter.
Zimbabwe: Life After Robert Mugabe
It has finally happened. After 37 years, the regime of Robert Mugabe has come to an end. Amidst the pressure from the military in the aftermath of the coup, followed by the decision of ZANU-PF to cut ties with their former leader, it took the threat of impeachment and an inglorious exit for the nonagenarian to call it a day to save what is left of his tattered legacy.
In Harare and other major centres in Zimbabwe, there is euphoria. For the first time since the end of minority rule and true independence, Zimbabwe will have a new ruler. But amidst the joy come the following questions.
Will Zimbabwe Emerge as a Democratic Nation?
This is the million-dollar question. It should be mentioned that Zimbabwe, even under white-minority rule (despite what others might say) has never experienced a truly democratic system of government. In colonial times and the UDI period, the franchise was limited to whites and a few select blacks. Under the government, power – despite being split 80:20 between the blacks and whites respectively – was dominated by ZANU-PF, with the orchestration of Gukurahundi and the hounding out of Mugabe’s rival Joshua Nkomo, followed by the merger of ZANU-PF with Nkomo’s ZAPU, setting the stage for de-facto one-party rule. After 2000 and the formation of the MDC, Mugabe has resorted to every undemocratic act to manipulate the system in his favour. Democracy has often just been wallpapering over the cracks.
That’s not to say that this is an opportunity for change. The masses have come out in support for the removal of Mugabe, the allies that kept him in office for so long have deserted him, even his Chinese allies have reportedly said in private they have had enough. But this does not suggest democracy is inevitable.
First, both ZANU-PF and the opposition are in disarray. The rivalry between Emmerson Mnangagwa and Mugabe’s wife, Grace, has led to a bitter factional rivalry that has weakened the party. As for the opposition, with former Mugabe supporters such as Joice Mujuru ending up forced out, there lacks a unified direction. While Morgan Tsvangirai, the head of the MDC, is the clear favourite to challenge, his recent cancer treatment, as well as leadership style, makes his hold on power a lot weaker than in previous years.
Then there are the backstage factors. Naturally, when a country suffers sudden political turmoil, those with the means do what they can to salvage power, wealth and influence. Zimbabwe will most likely be the same. Since Zimbabwe has seen democracy used more as an excuse to legitimise Mugabe, people with these three means will be disinclined to see its introduction immediately, let they lose it all. Rather, a period of provisional governance, such as the one Reuters speculates will emerge, could emerge as a stepping stone to a stable democracy.
Zimbabwe’s Defence Force
Despite the euphoria, people are at the same time concerned about the defence force in power. Former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, on discussing repression, remarked “I am told it is like making love – it is always easier the second time”. The same can be said about military coups. It must be remembered that history has not been kind to nations where the military has seized power.
Often or not, the difference between nations which have never had a coup and those which have had many is, as Paul Nugent puts it when talking about Cote D’Ivoires first coup in 1999, the ‘military genie in the bottle’. Armies which have never led a coup often are apprehensive of the blowback, often preferring to sit back and watch. However, those that have often seize power multiple times. They gain experience in governing a nation and, despite oppressive means of governance, often find support for a return among some sectors of the masses when democracy fails to live up to expectations.
In Zimbabwe’s case, it is impossible to tell how this is going to pan out. If one took General Constantino Chiwenga at his word, this is just a neccessary transition of power to rebuild an ailing nation from ‘treasonous’ forces inside government. Early signs would support this argument, with the army more or less allowing all political and democratic procedures to run their course. But the whole idea of forcing regime change is not so cut and dry. Their motive, responding to the dismissal of Mnangagwa, contrasts with this theory.
Whoever ends up in control has to sort out the disaster that has become the Zimbabwean economy. Famously dubbed the ‘breadbasket of Africa’ once upon a time, the nation has seen its fortunes tumble. It might as well be argued that a Zimbabwean optimist is one that thinks things cannot get any worse. Decades of kleptocracy, poor policy and ideological point scoring has depleted the treasury. Unemployment, though hard to measure, sits around the 60-95% mark, depending on who is telling the story. Furthermore, Hyperinflation forced the abandonment of the Zimbabwean dollar in favour of using foreign currency. Hyperinflation returned not long after the Zimbabwean government began using bond notes as a form of currency. These are serious issues where there is no easy fix.
However, if we assume that Mnangagwa is likely to assume power, there are some likely policy changes that will be of some benefit. First and foremost, unlike the teacher/career politician Mugabe, Mnangagwa is said to be Zimbabwe’s richest man. Having served as Mugabe’s spymaster in the 1980’s (for which his role in the Gukurahundi massacres means he is still reviled amongst the Matabele population), Mnangagwa has used every opportunity (much like Mujuru and other high ranking officials) to enrich himself, with speculation he even profited from Zimbabwe’s incursion into the Congo during the late 90’s.
Despite this dubiousness, Mnangagwa has shown he more than willing to work with persons Mugabe would consider ideological enemies. Mnangagwa has previously stated the need for a strong agricultural sector, something non-existent since the forced acquisition of white-owned farms begun in the early 2000s. Both he and Tsvangirai want the return of white farmers to boost the economy. Whether they will come back or, alternatively, cause friction among those who took ownership of the land in the aftermath of their expulsion is yet to be seen.However, more will need to be done.
Indigenisation policies orchestrated by Mugabe, whilst redistributing power to native Zimbabweans, has been a spectacular failure, with foreign investment drying up. Likewise, the nation’s penchant for state-ownership instead of private enterprise, particularly with the nations bountiful diamond mines, will be something that needs review. This may seem a simple fix, but it is a complicated issue, one that needs serious reform just to stem the tide of economic disaster.
It is safe to say whatever positives that have come from Robert Mugabe’s rule, be it education or health-wise, has been completely forgotten in the shadow of the misrule and repression that he openly endorsed. His role as a freedom fighter has brought admiration and affection for him in the past, but these days it is hard to reconcile that image with that of the tyrant whom many see as worse than their white oppressors. He will be remembered as one of Africa’s self-centred dictators, and the man who broke Zimbabwe’s heart.
Zimbabwe is in for a period of uncertainty. How long it lasts and how well the country recovers is yet to be seen. But right now, any prediction of how this transpires is just that. Zimbabweans may celebrate the removal of a tyrant, but there is an old saying – ‘meet the new boss, same as the old boss’. If the best-case scenario prevails, Zimbabwe may return to its mantle as the ‘breadbasket of Africa’. If it’s the worst-case scenario, people may well start reminiscing about the Mugabe years.
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