September 19, 2015    3 minute read

Is Italy on the path to recovery?

   September 19, 2015    3 minute read

Is Italy on the path to recovery?

Italy was one of the most affected countries by the financial crisis that arose in 2008. During recent years the “Bel Paese” has been synonymous of a high unemployment rate, deflation and an increasing public debt. Since 2008 the economic situation has got progressively worse, with the number of unemployed that nearly doubled, rising from 6% of the total workforce in 2008 to more than 12% in 2014, with a half of youths being jobless. In addition to that, public debt has increased incessantly, reaching the vertiginous amount of more than 2,200 billions of euros, with the ratio Debt/GDP. being second only to that of Greece. Moreover, the deflation has been a constant characteristic of the Italian economy, with cost of life decreasing considerably.

 A bit of positivity 

From the beginning of 2015, some positive trends emerged regarding a possible recovery. The public debt started to decrease, declining from €2,200 billion after some time. To boost the recovery, since the public debt seems to be more stable, the Italian government, with or without the EU approval, is implementing a tax reduction with the total cut of IMU and TASI (taxes on house property) from 2016. This has not been the only point on which the Italian government has focused, in fact, the labor market has been revised, leading to an increase in permanent contracts and a decrease in the unemployment rate that is now getting closer to the EU average.

The dissenting voices

As is the case in every important discussion, not all economists have the same opinion, in fact, some of them are supposing that it is too early to talk of recovery, saying that all the indicators are not stable and therefore not fully reliable. For instance the Debt/GDP ratio, which is one of the most important indicator, in June 2015 has stepped back, increasing to 132% again. So according to them, before Italy really starts its recovery process, more time should be spent.

On the right path

As history tells, recovery from a deep financial crisis is never an easy thing, but Italy after 7 years seems to have taken the right path. However, with the current global situation, the path is tortuous and the ability to fully recover is not easy to achieve. These years have been terrible for Italy and for the Italians, but for sure, the worst is over. Leaving aside, for a moment, the problems that Italy and Europe are facing today as that of refugees; the Italian economic situation is surely better than the past, consumptions resumed and people are no longer desperate as they were before, but still a lot has to be done to bring Italy back to the economic position it deserves.

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